Forum for Environmental management and Research

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FORUM FOR ENVIRONMENTAL
MANAGEMENT AND RESEARCH - NEPAL

A Critique of Methods as Practiced in Nepal in Predicting and Evaluating
Environmental Impacts during EIA study

Vinay Kumar Bhandari, EIA Research Team, Research Division
Forum for Environment and Research-Nepal (FERN), Kathmandu, Nepal

Abstract
Ten years have passed by since the formulation and endorsement of National EIA Guidelines by HMG Nepal in 1992. It is time we reviewed the impact prediction and evaluation methods as proposed by the Guidelines. The impact prediction and evaluation methods as proposed in the Guidelines are based on empiricism. It is not clear from the Guidelines how the concepts of magnitude, duration and extent are arrived at, and what are the internal and integral relationships of them with each other. The guidelines have proposed that the ranks assigned to the magnitude, extent and duration are to be added. It however fails to explain why the ranks are to be added instead of being multiplied. This fundamental mathematics has not been given due consideration in the Guidelines. The naïve mathematics of adding three aspects namely, magnitude, extent and duration are beyond comprehension. Can we add three parameters with different units of measurement? We can add two or more than two parameters if and only if their units of measurements are the same. But this has not been observed by the Guidelines. As a result, the methods are fraught with fundamental mathematical and scientific invalidity. The Guidelines have recommended assigning lower rank to duration compared to extent and magnitude without explaining the reason behind. The Guidelines are also unable to describe how the statement of an impact needs to be written in text.

This paper is an attempt to show where the methods have gone wrong and how. The analysis has been performed using rigorous but simple mathematics. Empiricism has been abandoned so far as possible. Alternative to existing method has also been proposed. On top of this, the proposed alternative has been presented in workable form that is simple to understand and apply in any environmental impact assessment study.

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